Rashard Lewis has reportedly agreed to a max contract with the Orlando Magic which will pay him around $15 million a season. The news reminded me of a long comment from Vish about high school basketball players that I never addressed at the time.
"with your list of players that have gone to the nba straight from high school... aside from lebron james, how many were REALLY ready for that jump and are now better off? monta ellis is good this season, but he was a second round pick. had he gone to mississippi state and shown what he can do at a higher level than high school competition, its likely that he would've gone in the first round. which would have gotten him a guaranteed 3 year contract and more money. aside from lebron james and dwight howard and anyone else taken in the top 5, most of those players could have been better off by going to college because they would've been drafted higher and gotten more guaranteed money. had kevin durant left high school for the nba, he probably would have been picked around 10-15, because as you know, everyone loves to over analyze every detail about a player leading up to the draft, and his small frame surely would have dropped his value."
It's not just Vish, he's just the only written example I have right now. To answer Vish's question, how many high schoolers are better off having made the jump? The answer is nearly every single player who got drafted in the first round. Most people don't know how tight the NBA rookie wage scale is. It's nothing like the NFL. Assuming "high school Kevin Durant" was taken with the 12th pick in the draft, he would only make about $5 million less than the real Kevin Durant will over the first three years of their rookie contracts. But the extra prime NBA year "high school Kevin Durant" gets? That year could net him over $15 million dollars. (Durant is something of a special case, as going to college MIGHT have increased his total career endorsement dollars, but very few players make big endorsement dollars. Most top players make very little through endorsements. Plus Durant may have made the same endorsement money anyway, it's hard to know for sure.)
Let's imagine you're an elite high school player, you've dominated all the local competition, you have the requisite athleticism, and you're one of the top players at the ABCD and Nike camps. Your game has flaws - scouts predict you can fix those flaws over time, but they're still flaws. You've received enough interest from teams to know that you'll be drafted in the first round in the 20s.
Option 1: Enter the draft, get drafted in the 20s.
Option 2: Go to college.
So what if you turn out to be really good? Despite the lower initial draft status, the accelerated development and extra prime years will net you an extra $10-$20 million over your career, examples being Al Harrington or Al Jefferson.
Ah, but what if you never fix that hitch in your jump shot, what if your decision making never improves, what if your left hand never develops? Then, shouldn't you go to college? Again, I'd say go to the pros. At least you'd get $2 million guaranteed. Going to college would either already expose your flaws and drop you out of the first round (Chris Taft) or subject you to injury risk and ruin your draft stock entirely (Chris Marcus). Assuming you're a high schooler who will be drafted in the first round, going to college for 2 years would only make sense if you have a pretty special combination: you will dominate college ball but also be an NBA bust. In that case, it makes sense to go all out to improve your initial draft standing, because your rookie contract would be your only contract, therefore you need to milk every dollar possible out of it.
But truthfully, no high school prospect could possibly think he was going to dominate college ball but also somehow be a huge NBA bust, even though such players turn out to exist. It's also worth noting that some "busts" like Kwame Brown or Darius Miles still received enormous long-term contracts after their rookie deals expired, furthering the notion that if you're big and athletic, you should get your ass in the league as fast as humanly possible.
All of which brings me back to Rashard Lewis. Like Monta Ellis, he slipped into the second round of the draft, and judging from his career stats, would have been much more NBA-ready after two years of college ball. Nonetheless, Lewis went pro, and is now about to sign his second huge long-term deal, this one at a max salary (his last contract paid slightly less than max). Had Lewis gone to college for two years, and been drafted say, #4, he would have made an additional $6 million over the first couple years, but would only be in year 4 of his first large contract. "High school Lewis" has already finished the first big contract and is signing his second one.
Most second round guys don't even make NBA rosters, which is why high schoolers take excessive risk to come out only to be drafted in the second round. But if you're first round material, whether you're awesome or you suck, it's in your best financial interest to enter the draft. It was the right call for Kobe Bryant, and it was the right call for Nnudi Ebi. You don't have to be top 5 for it to be the best long-term financial decision, and you definitely don't need to be a good NBA player for it to be the best decision.
"with your list of players that have gone to the nba straight from high school... aside from lebron james, how many were REALLY ready for that jump and are now better off? monta ellis is good this season, but he was a second round pick. had he gone to mississippi state and shown what he can do at a higher level than high school competition, its likely that he would've gone in the first round. which would have gotten him a guaranteed 3 year contract and more money. aside from lebron james and dwight howard and anyone else taken in the top 5, most of those players could have been better off by going to college because they would've been drafted higher and gotten more guaranteed money. had kevin durant left high school for the nba, he probably would have been picked around 10-15, because as you know, everyone loves to over analyze every detail about a player leading up to the draft, and his small frame surely would have dropped his value."
It's not just Vish, he's just the only written example I have right now. To answer Vish's question, how many high schoolers are better off having made the jump? The answer is nearly every single player who got drafted in the first round. Most people don't know how tight the NBA rookie wage scale is. It's nothing like the NFL. Assuming "high school Kevin Durant" was taken with the 12th pick in the draft, he would only make about $5 million less than the real Kevin Durant will over the first three years of their rookie contracts. But the extra prime NBA year "high school Kevin Durant" gets? That year could net him over $15 million dollars. (Durant is something of a special case, as going to college MIGHT have increased his total career endorsement dollars, but very few players make big endorsement dollars. Most top players make very little through endorsements. Plus Durant may have made the same endorsement money anyway, it's hard to know for sure.)Let's imagine you're an elite high school player, you've dominated all the local competition, you have the requisite athleticism, and you're one of the top players at the ABCD and Nike camps. Your game has flaws - scouts predict you can fix those flaws over time, but they're still flaws. You've received enough interest from teams to know that you'll be drafted in the first round in the 20s.
Option 1: Enter the draft, get drafted in the 20s.
Option 2: Go to college.
So what if you turn out to be really good? Despite the lower initial draft status, the accelerated development and extra prime years will net you an extra $10-$20 million over your career, examples being Al Harrington or Al Jefferson.Ah, but what if you never fix that hitch in your jump shot, what if your decision making never improves, what if your left hand never develops? Then, shouldn't you go to college? Again, I'd say go to the pros. At least you'd get $2 million guaranteed. Going to college would either already expose your flaws and drop you out of the first round (Chris Taft) or subject you to injury risk and ruin your draft stock entirely (Chris Marcus). Assuming you're a high schooler who will be drafted in the first round, going to college for 2 years would only make sense if you have a pretty special combination: you will dominate college ball but also be an NBA bust. In that case, it makes sense to go all out to improve your initial draft standing, because your rookie contract would be your only contract, therefore you need to milk every dollar possible out of it.
But truthfully, no high school prospect could possibly think he was going to dominate college ball but also somehow be a huge NBA bust, even though such players turn out to exist. It's also worth noting that some "busts" like Kwame Brown or Darius Miles still received enormous long-term contracts after their rookie deals expired, furthering the notion that if you're big and athletic, you should get your ass in the league as fast as humanly possible.
All of which brings me back to Rashard Lewis. Like Monta Ellis, he slipped into the second round of the draft, and judging from his career stats, would have been much more NBA-ready after two years of college ball. Nonetheless, Lewis went pro, and is now about to sign his second huge long-term deal, this one at a max salary (his last contract paid slightly less than max). Had Lewis gone to college for two years, and been drafted say, #4, he would have made an additional $6 million over the first couple years, but would only be in year 4 of his first large contract. "High school Lewis" has already finished the first big contract and is signing his second one.Most second round guys don't even make NBA rosters, which is why high schoolers take excessive risk to come out only to be drafted in the second round. But if you're first round material, whether you're awesome or you suck, it's in your best financial interest to enter the draft. It was the right call for Kobe Bryant, and it was the right call for Nnudi Ebi. You don't have to be top 5 for it to be the best long-term financial decision, and you definitely don't need to be a good NBA player for it to be the best decision.
1 comment:
i think the main point where we differ (on this topic, at least, since we seem to disagree on all things related to sports) is that you feel that a player will only get better by being in the nba, because of the better competition. but i think theres also the chance that this player gets discouraged by the lack of playing time, the inability to make an impact, falls out of favor with a coach who doesnt bother to develop rookies, never learns how to win, all that. this player could have improved while in college and been better prepared for the nba and not been a waste of space. i guess we will again have to agree to disagree on that point.
as for money, with the rising salary cap and inflation and contracts seemingly getting bigger and bigger each year, its possible (i dont follow nba contracts so i dont know how likely this is, but going by what happens in baseball and football, i assume that this could happen also in basketball. so possible is the key word) anyways, its possible that someone could parlay their late first round money into a, say, 10 million a season contract. where as had they entered the draft a year or two later, they couldve taken their mid first round money and then gotten 12million a season for their first max contract.
by not making the leap and actually being nba ready, they also spare the teams that drafted them from keeping garbage around for 2 years before making a return on the investment. which i think i mentioned in my last long reply.
i am now the last person in my office.. how sad.
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